Achilles and the Tortoise
An appy dialogue
[Achilles is strolling through a woodland in the late afternoon. After a rather nasty three day heatwave with temperatures peaking at 38 degrees in the city and 40 here in the country (that’s 100+ in Fahrenheit), a cool change has at last set in. A breeze cools Achilles’ heels, momentarily crowding out the rushing sounds of a nearby river. Achilles pauses and takes a deep breath, imbibing the scenery, when a tortoise crawls out on the path in front of him.]
Achilles: Is that you, Tortoise?
Tortoise: Who else would it be then, Achilles?
Achilles: My apologies, I haven’t seen you around these parts before.
Tortoise: You’ve not kept abreast of the latest modelling of climate change impacts on species distributions? I’m not out here for fun!
Achilles: My apologies again, Tortoise. How are you, anyway?
Tortoise: Much better now. That heatwave was almost unbearable.
Achilles: It’s true. Of course we’ve always had hot days and heatwaves, but we seem to be having awfully many of them, and intense ones, increasingly. Every extreme event is tarred with the brush of human-caused climate change.
Tortoise: It’s true. Even the cold snaps feel ominous, like a temporary reprieve from a movie baddie that you know will reappear in the next scene. But our gift for seeing multiple meanings in an event can also serve us well. We can see those same extreme events as an opportunity to learn, an opportunity to rattle the cages of decision makers, to connect with our fellow living creatures, to steel ourselves and make doubly sure we correct our path.
Achilles: I admire your perspective, Tortoise. Now, let me ask you something.
Tortoise: Please do.
Achilles: Do you know when these woods last burnt?
[Tortoise looks around]
Tortoise: I can’t see any obvious signs of recent fire. It looks like some of the trees on the hill over there might have burnt some time ago, but I couldn’t say when.
Achilles: Well thanks to my new Fire Risk Near Me App, we don’t have to live in ignorance any longer!
[Achilles pulls out his phone and starts pressing buttons and swiping, showing Tortoise]
Tortoise: Do you mind if I take a look?
Achilles: Of course!
[Achilles hands it over]
Tortoise: Remarkable. So these woods burnt in 2006… and 2003 before that… Goodness me, they’ve known quite a lot of fire! I wonder what’s kept fire from the door since then? Was it good luck? Prudent fire management? Topographic advantage?
Achilles: The stream over there might help.
Tortoise: Yes, but do you suppose it always runs this high?
Achilles: Hang on, let me check my Streamwatch App.
Tortoise: Hold on, we’ve barely looked at the Fire App!
[Achilles takes the phone back] Sorry, yes…Let’s see, I haven’t gone through all the features yet, but there are a few things… Oh yes, so with fire history, we can not only see all the times this patch has burnt - it only goes back fifty years or so, unfortunately, apparently they’re working on that - we can get a picture of that across the entire forest. Here, look.
Tortoise: Remarkable! It looks like an abstract painting!
Achilles: Doesn’t it. I quite like the colour scheme they’ve used. As you can see, even in this humble wood there are parts that have burnt four times in the last fifty years, and parts that haven’t burnt at all. This button lets you explore the connectedness of unburnt patches - I suppose you might know some people around here that would be interested in that.
Tortoise: Please Achilles, you don’t need to be a meteorologist to know what time the wind change is due.
Achilles: Sorry, Tortoise, of course you animals are intimately in touch with the natural rhythms and pulses of disturbance. Anyway, what else? Ah yes, we can see how big the different patches are - it seems that the total area of long unburnt forest has been steadily dwindling.
Tortoise: Oh dear.
Achilles: Speaking of meteorology, let’s look at the Fire Weather button. Historical trends… oh dear, that’s awful.
Tortoise: Hmm, look at that upper atmospheric data. What an engrossing animation! I love the way it swirls and shifts orientation. What an ever tumbling lottery machine the troposphere is.
Achilles: The coriolis effect makes my head spin.
Tortoise: What does that button over there do?
Achilles: The fuel one? Let’s have a look. Ok, so it tells us what species live here, particularly the big flammable ones. We can see how much litter is on the floor, we can see what’s happening with the ladder fuels -
Tortoise: Is that LiDAR?
Achilles: It certainly is! Isn’t that remarkable?
[Achilles holds his phone up towards a stand of trees. It looks as if the phone is taking an rainbow-coloured X-Ray of the landscape.
Tortoise: And we can track this back in time too?
[Achilles presses a few times and swipes a few times]
Achilles: Here we go. Wow, look at those changes after the ‘03 and ‘06 seasons. And look at all the twists and turns since then!
Tortoise: I know a few real estate agents in the forests that would love to have this data.
Achilles: It’s all freely available! Let’s try the Fuel Moisture button.
Tortoise: Would you look at that. That heatwave really took a toll, didn’t it? And it’s already bouncing back a little over there - was that a raindrop?
Achilles: I’m not sure, I didn’t feel one.
Tortoise: Anyway, that’s quite astonishing. Look, we can see the size, location and connectedness of ‘critical flammable zones’ from today right back through to the start of the records! Look at that diurnal cycle. Gosh, the difference between the riparian vegetation and the hill over there -
Achilles: You mean the bit still bathed in sunlight? [Achilles looks down at the phone] Goodness me, you’re right.
Tortoise: Right, let’s try Ignitions.
Achilles: Oh, I like this one. Isn’t it pretty? Are they observations? There can’t have been that many ignitions in these woods, even if records do go back fifty years.
Tortoise: No, see, it says there this is a modelled surface. It’s based on extensive modelling across the region. Here, why don’t you toggle to observations. Ok, you’re right, there haven’t been many at all.
Achilles: What are these sliders? [Tests them out]
Tortoise: Marvellous, they let us look at the different ignition sources. Lightning - gosh you don’t think we’ll get any tonight do you?
Achilles: Hmm, no I wouldn’t think so.
Tortoise: Pity, I do love a good thunderstorm. There’s arson, accidental - my goodness, that one breaks down into another dozen categories. Pyrotechnics, good heavens!
Achilles: Hang on, I think I remember seeing something back on the home page. Yes, here it is. Integrate.
[Achilles pushes a button, and the landscape tilts as colours begin to swirl over it in three dimensional layers]
Tortoise: They’ve combined the four drivers, brilliant! Look at them go! There’s the daily cycle… try weeks… ok what about months, years... Oh dear me, no wonder this place burned back in 2006. Talk about wave reinforcement!
Achilles: Look! It seems that this place has escaped a few close shaves over the years!
Tortoise: Right you are. Look at those purple peaks! But no fires then.
Achilles: No. I suppose the first domino doesn’t always fall, even when they’re all lined up.
[The two look away from the screen and lose themselves in thought for a moment]
Tortoise: Oh my goodness, is that the time? I must be getting on, sorry Achilles.
Achilles: Right you are. Lovely to see you Tortoise.
Tortoise: And you!
[Achilles starts to leave. Tortoise checks their watch]
Tortoise: Actually, Achilles, do you mind - could I just quickly check something?
Achilles: Of course!
Tortoise: Blast, I was hoping they’d have a climate change button.
Achilles: Apparently it’s in development… late 2023 it says.
Tortoise: I suppose that’s not too long to wait. Ok then, old friend. Take care!
Achilles: You too!
[Tortoise continues across the path. Achilles starts walking but is still staring at the screen]
Achilles: Hang on, Fire Impacts. Ooh, I never saw that one before! Fire severity… incredible colours! Water catchments… house loss… smoke health impacts… My word, economic impacts! Ah, great, a season by season summary. What an interesting figure!
[Achilles puts the phone away and keeps walking, but a moment later it is out of his pocket again]
Achilles: Fire Behaviour, ok why not? Progression! Terrific. My goodness, is that actual smoke coming out of my phone? It’s so life-like! [Achilles hastens his stride as if to evade the fire smouldering in his phone] Definitely exiting out of that one… Seasonal Predictions… Let’s see, Live Predictions! Oh I would hate to have to look at that one. But I wouldn’t be able to turn away. And anyway, wouldn’t the fire have changed enough by the time the prediction was calculated that a new one would need to be calculated? That reminds me of a paradox I once heard…
[Achilles continues on down the path until he is out of sight. From a great distance we hear Achilles moan ‘Paleofire feature expected in 20 years?! What!!’]
Ah the things we can do with technology. I don't ever need to go out into the real world ever again !
(unless you're a tortoise or a firefighter)
Why not both. I think we can do a lot better with tech, in terms of the end result of gaining a deeper and more intuitive sense for fire. But there must be many ways to get the broader community a bit closer to fire - not necessarily on firegrounds! But in a way that moves the needle more than an app or newspaper headline ever could.